The UAE property market enters 2026 against a backdrop of remarkable achievement and measured recalibration. After five years of extraordinary growth, industry analysts are signaling a natural evolution—one defined not by decline, but by maturity, selectivity, and sustainable long-term fundamentals. From Dubai’s record-breaking transaction volumes to Abu Dhabi’s strategic expansion and Ras Al Khaimah’s emergence as a luxury destination, the market is entering a phase that rewards informed decision-making and quality-focused investment.
Market Maturity: A Natural Transition, Not a Slowdown
Moody’s latest outlook on the UAE’s residential real estate market projects a modest decline in developer sales and mild price softening over the next 12 to 18 months as rising completions add supply. Between 2026 and 2028, approximately 180,000 new units are expected to be completed in Dubai—a significant increase from prior years that is likely to moderate price growth .
However, industry leaders emphasize that this represents a healthy transition rather than cause for concern. Munir Al-Daraawi, CEO of Orla Properties, describes “a market that is successfully transitioning from a period of extraordinary growth to one of sustainable stability,” adding that the projected supply increase is “a reflection of the UAE’s long-term appeal to high-net-worth individuals and a growing population” .
Riad Gohar, co-founder and CEO of BlackOak Real Estate, highlights a critical structural distinction: this is not a debt-fueled cycle. Around 83 percent of Dubai residential transactions in 2024 and 2025 were non-mortgaged, meaning the market is equity-driven rather than credit-driven. “When cycles are not built on leverage, corrections are typically shallow and segmented, not systemic,” he explains .
Dubai Rental Market: Stabilization on the Horizon
After years of sustained increases, Dubai’s rental market is showing clear signs of stabilization. Analysts expect rents to stop rising by the end of 2026, with approximately 170,000 homes expected to be completed this year, nearly 88 percent of which are apartments .
Haider Tuaima, managing director at ValuStrat, notes that increased supply will put downward pressure on rents in areas such as Business Bay, Jumeirah Village Circle and Jumeirah Lakes Towers. “If you get too many handovers and the tenants will have a lot to choose from, landlords cannot increase the rents and they might also offer discounts” .
Despite this moderation, Dubai’s rental sector recorded strong growth in 2025. Registered tenancy contracts rose 6 percent in volume to 1.38 million contracts, while the value of contracts surged 17 percent to Dh126.4 billion ($34.4 billion). New tenancy contracts jumped by 10 percent to more than 513,000, reflecting Dubai’s enduring appeal as a destination to live and work .
Rachael Kennerley, director of Middle East research at Savills, adds nuance: “Areas in high demand, especially villa communities where the supply constraints are expected to persist, may see stable to higher rents” .
Abu Dhabi’s Strategic Expansion
The capital is writing its own success story. Abu Dhabi closed 2025 with record real estate performance, achieving total transactions of Dh142 billion from 42,814 transactions—a 44 percent increase in value and 52 percent rise in transaction volume compared to 2024. Foreign Direct Investment reached Dh8.2 billion, representing a 13 percent increase with investors from more than 100 nationalities .
Rashed Al Omaira, Director General of ADREC, emphasizes the deliberate nature of this growth: “The outcomes recorded in 2025 are not accidental; they reflect a real estate market that has been deliberately shaped around trust, clarity and long-term confidence” .
January 2026 figures reinforce this momentum. Abu Dhabi recorded AED12 billion ($3.2 billion) in total sales across 2,600 transactions, with off-plan properties accounting for an impressive 83 percent of activity. Top-performing areas included Saadiyat Island (AED5.6 million), Al Jubail Island (AED4.2 million), and Al Raha (AED3.23 million) .
Svetlana Politova, CEO of Whitewill Abu Dhabi, projects continued growth: “Expected trends include annual sale price growth of 12–15%, rental growth exceeding 10% for apartments, and transaction volume expansion of 30–40%. Abu Dhabi is steadily reinforcing its position as a standalone premium investment centre” .
Aldar’s AED23 Billion Commitment to Abu Dhabi
Demonstrating developer confidence in the capital’s trajectory, Aldar Properties will begin construction on nearly 3,000 new homes in Abu Dhabi this year, with a total gross development value estimated at AED23 billion ($6.26 billion) .
The developer has acquired 2.3 million square metres of land bank across Saadiyat Island and Yas Island. Saadiyat Island will host luxury residences including large-format villas and mansions, while Yas Island plots will be dedicated to large-scale, master-planned communities focused on family living, supported by established retail, entertainment, and lifestyle infrastructure .
Record-Breaking Luxury Performance
Dubai’s ultra-luxury segment continues to defy global expectations. H&H Development recently sold a penthouse for $108 million and reports strong continued demand. The firm has begun presales of branded-luxury residences as part of a AED5.5 billion ($1.5 billion) high-end mixed-use development called Janu Dubai in the Dubai International Financial Centre .
Shahab Lutfi, Chairman of H&H Development, observes: “We were talking about slowing demand two years ago. It hasn’t slowed and prices have gone up.” With over AED30 billion in properties under development, the average price of apartments H&H sells is $10 million .
Remarkably, about 500 homes sold for more than $10 million last year in Dubai, surpassing all global cities including New York and Hong Kong, according to Knight Frank .
New Market Entrants and Mega Projects
Blue Square Enters UAE Market
Blue Square, a leading developer with significant regional presence, has announced its entry into the UAE with Vayla Residences on Dubai Islands. The eight-floor residential development features one- and two-bedroom apartments alongside exclusive one- to three-bedroom duplexes .
AED25 Billion EVERMORE in Ras Al Khaimah
BEYOND Developments has unveiled EVERMORE, its first fully master-planned destination on Marjan Beach in Ras Al Khaimah. With a projected gross development value exceeding AED25 billion and spanning more than 7 million square feet, the development represents the opening chapter of BEYOND’s 2026 growth strategy .
Located opposite Wynn Al Marjan Island, EVERMORE is designed as a fully pedestrian masterplan with 250,000 square metres of landscaped open spaces, a central botanical garden, and 3.5 kilometres of accessible beachfront. The destination integrates residential, hospitality and retail components, including 1 million square feet of hospitality and branded residential offerings .
Mahdi Amjad, Founder and Executive Chairman of BEYOND Developments, states: “Ras Al Khaimah is witnessing a new phase of development, underpinned by disciplined planning, rising global relevance and the long-term vision of its leadership” .
The Equity-Driven Cycle: A Structural Strength
Industry analysts emphasize that the current market cycle differs fundamentally from previous booms. Gohar notes three distinguishing features: the market is equity-driven rather than credit-driven; the macroeconomic backdrop is stronger with sustained non-oil GDP growth; and prime and non-prime segments must be separated in analysis .
“Any pressure from increased completions is more likely to affect marginal locations, not established prime areas supported by global HNWI inflows. Historically, prime assets in Dubai have shown resilience even during broader market pauses,” Gohar explains .
Banks’ real estate exposure has already declined to around 12 percent of total loans—from 19 percent in 2021—and non-performing loans remain low at 2.9 percent, meaning financial contagion risk is limited. Regulatory escrow structures and stricter oversight further reduce spillover .
The Bottom Line
The UAE real estate market in 2026 is defined by structural strength, strategic expansion, and sustainable long-term fundamentals. The projected delivery of new supply represents not a threat but a reflection of the UAE’s enduring global appeal and its ability to attract population growth and capital inflows.
For investors and end-users, this phase rewards quality-focused decisions, strategic positioning, and a clear understanding of market segmentation. Prime assets in established communities are expected to maintain resilience, while new developments in emerging destinations offer compelling opportunities for those with long-term vision.
The UAE property market is not slowing—it is maturing. And maturity, in real estate as in life, brings stability, clarity, and the foundation for sustained success.
Whether you are evaluating investment opportunities or seeking your next home, understanding these market dynamics is essential for making informed decisions in 2026. Contact Realty Access for personalized guidance on navigating today’s evolving landscape.
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